Is the world the best it's ever been ... and why?

[Thomas]

Hi Wil...

I started this thread to continue a discussion raised elsewhere, in which you stated:

Honoring who you are...and the 'mistakes' you made to get here! Yes they are all good...we are all moving toward the good...

This statement raises a number of questions for me:
'Honoring who you are ...' is everyone deserving of our honour and respect?

...and the 'mistakes' you made to get here! The assumption then is decisions made, which might well be conceived of at the time or subsequently, as 'mistakes' ... are not 'mistakes' at all, but actions we were led to take by a beneficient being with a plan?

Does this not pre-suppose someone/something with a degree of omnipresence, omniscience and omnipotence micromanaging the outcomes of our actions towards a pre-determined good end which we ourselves might yet still be unaware of.

I find this assertion, without any evidence to support it, a statement of blind faith in a benevolent deity and consequently somewhat confusing as it's author has, in the past, been somewhat critical of this order of unquestioning and unproven faith when held by others, especially of the God of the Bible.

I also find it hard to accept in the face of all the suffering in the world.

The world is the best it has ever been...

We've been down this road before, and you know my opinion is that such statements reflect the experience of a relatively small portion of the global population which happens to enjoy disproportionate access to global goods, products, services and resources, etc., often at the cost of the rest of that population ... a situation, by the way, which a significant portion of those immediately involved assert is unsustainable in the long term?

(I think the UK might be ahead of the curve here, as it's evident that the options/choices available to my children — healthcare, housing, education — are less than those that were available to me, and that 'the fat years' are over ... )

But be that as it may, any empirical or statistical date that 'the world is the best it has ever been' does not constitute a proof or argument for the existence of a benign deity micromanaging human affairs ...

Just wondering how you see it?

 

[wil]

For the first half, all I have to say is that when you are a carpenter you see things solved with a
Hammer and nail and when you are a surgeon you solve things with a scalpel.... It does not surprise me that you assume that my statement is answered by a belief in G!d... Me? The nontheistic panentheist Christian universalist unitic...accepts that... I think you know, I am at best a G!d leaning agnostic that doesn't believe for a minute (well I did for years) that there existed an OT god who smited and plagued his way thru creation...

Now I do believe we are slowly evolving our way toward the understanding that uneyer1 with everything

As to the second half...sheesh of course we are getting slowly better as a humans... And lol it sure has nothing to do with the rights trampling, healthcare removing, environmental and international disaster of a president we just elected in my local world, lol!!!

It does have to do with a per capita improvement on fewer deaths due to war and violence, lessening crime stats, reduction in slavery worldwide, improved conditions for women and lgtbq folk, improvement on domestic abuse laws (all of which used to be called discipline) ... Sure their are horrendous abuses, and we still have a long way to go.... But we've come a long way baby! He'll tying cats together, throwing them over a line and lighting them on fire while they fight is no longer considered fun, and we aren't regularly lynching minorities... Please pardon me if I think this as improvement.

 

[Thomas]

The nontheistic panentheist Christian universalist unitic...

Sorry, but there's such a collective oxymoron at play there I have no idea what that means.

... that doesn't believe for a minute (well I did for years) that there existed an OT god who smited and plagued his way thru creation...

No-one does, except the fundies ...

Now I do believe we are slowly evolving our way toward the understanding that uneyer1 with everything...

The increase of human knowledge is immaterial, really, we don't need to know more to be better, we just need to be better with what we already know, and really with what we've known for the last couple of millennia.

But that doesn't address the central issue I raised, which was the implication that we are somehow nurtured towards a pre-determined good end by a deity that involves itself in human history at the level of the individual person, an implication which raises difficult questions of theodicy ...

As to the second half...sheesh of course we are getting slowly better as a humans...

Are we? I don't see it.

What countries do you see as enjoying this renaissance?

It does have to do with a per capita improvement on fewer deaths due to war and violence...

Well the numbers of combatants killed and injured is dropping, but that's the nature of war-at-a-distance. The numbers of civilians killed, injured, displaced etc., has significantly increased. Those figures don't get reported.

If the A-bomb has emerged as a global peacekeeper, that's no sign of human betterment, rather it's the lesson of Mutual Assured Destruction.

Meanwhile the industrialised powers fight proxy wars through 'advisers', mercenaries, and the global arms trade.

... lessening crime stats...

That's local, not global. In the UK we're suffering an epidemic of knife crime and a rising mortality rate ...

Then again, the US has the highest incarceration rate in the world, so maybe it's a statistical thing that crime figures must drop because so many are in prison ... but that hardly points to a better human person (also, you seem poised on the edge of an opioids epidemic ... )

...reduction in slavery worldwide ...

This week’s release of new estimates on the scope of slavery worldwide are both shocking and encouraging. Shocking because the figures are worse than many experts had believed. But encouraging because the report’s release at the United Nations General Assembly has prompted unprecedented commitments by governments and global organizations to work together to end slavery forever. (free the slaves)

So slavery has reached shocking proportions: "40 million people are enslaved right now. About 20 million are trapped in labor slavery, about 5 million are exploited in sex slavery, about 15 million are enslaved in forced marriages. Women and girls account for 71 percent of the total; children are about 25 percent of the total. The study found that 89 million people have experienced some form of modern slavery during the past five years, ranging from a few days to several years."

But good news ... govts make encouraging noises ... excuse me if I choose to wait and see the effects rather than just the noises.

improved conditions for women and lgtbq folk, improvement on domestic abuse laws (all of which used to be called discipline) ... Sure their are horrendous abuses, and we still have a long way to go.... But we've come a long way baby!

All rather parochial. Are you saying that white middle class North Americans are getting better, distancing themselves from the rest of the world?

 

[wil]

Nope and again tis you not I posting local examples and numbers are sorry, meaningless (in themselves) without perspective, I am talking per capita worldwide... Percentages is the whole... You and I, our entire lifetime, the most peaceful, most humane 60 years this planet has seen.

Continue your research and rejoice... Again I ain't saying we don't have a long way to go, we as a population still need to work in the definition of humane as implying humans have it

 

[wil]

You do know pointing out Good as the proof of G!d is one half of the double edged sword our millions of fundies over here use all the time, the other half perceiving he sends tornadoes to wipe out sinners in New Orleans...

 

[Thomas]

... I am talking per capita worldwide...

Nope... don't see it...

And according to the Global Peace Index, whilst "Over the past year 93 countries have seen an improvement in terms of their peacefulness, while 68 have got worse." So there's shifts and balances, but no overall indicative trend towards the good.

You and I, our entire lifetime, the most peaceful, most humane 60 years this planet has seen.

LOL, that 'peace' is relative, the 20th century topping the chart as being the most violent in human history, so we'd have to be going at it left, right and centre to be worse!

The figures above are percentage of the estimated global population killed through war, oppression, etc.
13th Century: 1.63%
14th Century: 1.10%
15th Century: 0.13%
16th Century: 0.74%
17th Century: 1.47%
18th Century: 0.58%
19th Century: 0.95%
20th Century: 1.69%

You can see a general trend century-on-century, the average is around 1% per capita, with the lowest in the 15th century, and the highest in the 20th. I doubt one would say the 15th century saw the highpoint of humanity.

So you can claim that we live in an era of relative peace, but I doubt we're significantly altering the percentages above, so we can't really say that we're evolving or advancing in any meaningful sense. And that peace could evaporate all too easily ...

 

[Thomas]

You do know ...

I'm not interested in fundies. It was your assertion that we're all being shepherded in the right direction and even our mistakes are for the good, that's I was asking about ...

 

[wil]

No-one does, except the fundies ...

if you don't bring them up, I don't have to respond to tell you how prevalent they are this side of the pond

I have repeatedly referred to the last 50 years or "our lifetime" and only the past 50 years(but you knew that) always specifically referring to the age of civil rights, lgtbq right, women's rights, animal rights, post world war 2 and Russian genocides...post US lynchings of blacks. Yes we still have pol pot, rowanda and Bosnia, but my contention stands, first half of the century was definitely off the charts and created that high percentage, last half, not so much.

Your data proves my point.

 

[A Cup Of Tea]

Your data proves my point.

From a strictly statistical perspective, no. If someone shows a a graph over a long period of time with both higher and lower data points then taking a smaller section out doesn't prove anything. In this case, humanity has already shown that it can achieve this level of "peace" without it lasting very long.

From a social science perspective, what you two are trying to prove is strictly subjective. What is 'good' or 'peaceful' depends on the definition of the premise. My opinion is that you would do better to sticking to the actual statistics rather than trying to extrapolate any ideological values from it. "The world is the best it has ever been" doesn't mean anything by it self but "civil rights, lgtbq right, women's rights, animal rights" are both specific and concrete in positive changes that is important to your perspective.

 

[Thomas]

From a strictly statistical perspective, no.

LOL. Thanks for clearing that up.

In this case, humanity has already shown that it can achieve this level of "peace" without it lasting very long.

Quite.

 

[wil]

No? Everywhere I have made that comment I have been referring to the past fifty years... My lifetime... The chart posted shows last century to but we are fully aware ye first half was decidedly more violent and more war deaths than the last... https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/four-charts-that-bill-gates-loves

Ain't my fault you all won't wear rose colored glasses due to your fashion sense and misery loves company coffee mugs!

 

[A Cup Of Tea]

Are you responding to me? I don't know what I wrote that could have that as a response? Perhaps I was unclear? Logically a shorter period of statistics can't trump a longer period of statistics like that.

Again, I'm not arguing against the world being better, though I don't agree with that. But I think your proof to be invalid in this case.

 

[wil]

Really? I've always spoke of the past 50 years....I've always been saying I have been living in the most peaceful humane times...

THAT....THIS is the period of time I have been discussing...the time we are living in...since civil rights in America... So how the first 50 years of this century has anything to do with what I've been saying and is proved out repeatedly...I am completely unclear of....

Unless you all have never been disagreeing with me....and want to change my 50 years I've been speaking of to the early part of our century....hint...I'll agree between Hitler and Stalin...it was a rough time for the world.... you know....during world wars??

 

[Thomas]

Really? I've always spoke of the past 50 years....I've always been saying I have been living in the most peaceful humane times...

Ah, you have been living in good times, OK. All we can say to that it lucky old you, and here's hoping it continues.

It was the extrapolation you were suggesting, applying the same to everyone else — that we're getting more humane or altruistic, more spiritually evolved, that I took issue with.

As I do with your idea that everything that happens is for the good, and that there is some kind of higher-level micromanaging going on. But then that's my view of Christianity — God is not a fairy godmother that makes all the nasty things nice, God is the God of this cosmos where, by virtue of finitude and contingency, 'shit happens', but that does not devalue the power of love.

Ain't my fault you all won't wear rose colored glasses due to your fashion sense and misery loves company coffee mugs!

LOL! Actually, it's social conscience that won't allow me to wear said fashion accessories!

This may be because in the UK we're seeing the signs before you guys ... We've been surfing the wave of 'the years of plenty', but that wave is breaking ... it's a recognised fact now that our children will be less well-off than we were in a number of significant areas — salaries, housing, healthcare, security, education, social mobility, etc.

 

[A Cup Of Tea]

What I specifically responded to was this, nothing more nothing less.

Your data proves my point.

How does his data, that is over a greater period of time, prove your point?

 

[Ahanu]

If tribal warfare had continued in the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths.

 

[Thomas]

Interesting video.

The two queries I have is how we factor in the A-bomb and nuclear weapons generally as 'peacekeepers', and what would have happened if there were no nuclear weapons, and thus no threat of Mutually Assured Destruction to keep the nuclear powers in check ...

(It's a sobering thought that even with nukes, on two occasions (at least) during the 'Cold War' era, the decision of a single individual to defy orders/the consensus prevented armageddon, the first when a Russian naval officer chose to vote 'no' to launching a torpedo against the US warship that was depth-charging it during the Cuba Missile Crisis (the vote was 2 in favour, 1 against), and the other was the Russian who took a chance on the possibility that the radar array showing a pre-emptive nuclear strike by the Americans was in fact a computer malfunction ... )

The other is how we factor the big players who now fight proxy wars, funding localised conflicts, employing mercenaries and distance-tech like drone strikes. Contributing to the 'Long Peace' was the collapse of Soviet Russia which left the US the main player and largely unopposed. But since Russia backed the Syrian regime against western interests and achieved what the west could not, that changes the picture dramatically.

... and China waiting in the wings ... and Iran and N Korea as the wild-cards ...

 

[wil]

Yes, I am a member of the lucky sperm club, born a white hetero male into a lower middle class family in the US, a country that provides privilege for white hetero males. But I am not, and have not been talking about my silver spoon life which has allowed me to live with negligible strife compared to the lions share of the world.

I AM continually repeating that during my lifetime the WORLD has been more peaceful than anytime in history.... Far from perfect...

 

[wil]

I know there is a lot of awful out there and need for improvement

Pardon me for focusing on improvement, the good and striving toward peace for future generations and disrupting everyone's whoa is me bitching and complaining....

 

[Thomas]

Hi Wil —

I rather think it's nuclear weapons that explains the current state in global affairs ...