Global Warming Watch

T

Tao_Equus

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This summer north west Europe has witnessed unprecedented weather. Never before have so many low pressure weather systems brought so much rain. As I type large swathes of England and Wales are under meters of flood water. Areas that have never before recorded flooding now do.
Further south in Europe record temperatures reign. From Spain to Greece the vulnerable are dying of heat exhaustion and forests spontaneously ignite in soaring temperatures.
Everywhere around the world records are being broken every successive year. Things are clearly changing. Country sized pieces of ice break away from the Antarctic, city sized pieces from the Arctic, glaciers melt and recede up the mountains. There are so many news reports it becomes impossible to deny that change is happening,,,and happening fast.

This thread is for you to record your own thoughts on the events that may be symptoms of these changes. Both the small events that take place locally to you, that the worlds press miss, and the larger events that worry and concern you. Also it may be a place for debate on what we can do to counter some of the worst effects of these changes and to bring your thoughts to the often contentious ideas floating around.

I look forward to your words on this issue.

Regards to all

Tao
 
On Friday I drove through a flooded town onto a motorway at the start of a 180 mile journey. The motorway had flooded apparently and it took me 3 hours to crawl 3 miles before leaving at the next available exit. With motorways, A roads, B roads, towns and villages flooded my journey home took me 10 hours (instead of 3 and a half). Another motorway suffered a landslide apparently. People slept in their cars on another motorway. A railway line has been closed due to the earth underneath being washed away…
But I know others have suffered far worse, including food and water shortages, damage to homes and loss of life.
This doesn’t seem like a blip or a natural change to me. With all man’s industrial activities it’s hardly surprising to me that the Earth is feeling sick and wanting to wash the problem away.

s.
 
Faithfulservant said:
"The beginning of sorrows"
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lol,Global Warming may spell disaster for our current wasteful, inequitable way of life. Especially in nations like the US which consumes far more than its share of global resources. But even in a worst case scenario millions, possibly billions of lives may be lost. However no creature that ever walked the Earth is more resilient and more adaptable than human kind. We will persist. The end of days is not nigh. But maybe the end of capitalistic ideas of endless growth will soon be lost in a realism that in order to prosper good management of resources must come first.

Historically, looking at things in Geological time frames the Earth is currently in an intermediate phase in regard to mean global temperature. In the distant past the Earth has warmed to the point that tropical conditions prevailed from pole to pole. As we know rainforests contain the greatest species diversity of any ecosystem and so it could be that the end result of the warming we are creating is actually a new period of rampant specification, but none of us knows the future. Regardless of how change comes about it has always and will always happen. Change is the norm, nothing is static. There have throughout human history been those with their placards held high declaring "The End of the World is Nigh". I am quite confident such people will continue to do so for millennia to come.

Tao
 
In the news last week:

Decreasing water levels in the river Po are putting Italian agricultural production at risk, according to a new study by environmental protection agency APAT. Water levels in the 675 km-long river have fallen by 20-25 per cent in the last 30 years due to global warming, which is responsible for increased evaporation from the river as well as for farmers needing to siphon off more water for crops. Rainfall in the Po valley has decreased by 15-20 per cent since 1987. APAT said there is a danger that the river will stop short of its mouth around the Ferrara area, which would result in salt water from the Adriatic sweeping up the valley. According to farmers’ union Coldiretti, the area is responsible for around one third of all “Made in Italy” products, with livestock in the Po valley accounting for 75 per cent of cheeses and hams with the denominazione di origine controllata (DOC) quality assurance label. Around 70 per cent of Italian pears, 50 per cent of kiwis and peaches, 20 per cent of apricots and melons and 20 per cent of cherries are grown in the Po valley, Coldiretti says. (source: Wanted in Rome)

As you will all be aware Italian produce has become a part of the diet of many of us. So this will affect us all. Environmentalists have long been talking about the river Po as a major source of pollution into the Adriatic sea that have resulted in toxic algal blooms of such scale they were visible from space. If the river does dry up it certainly solves that problem but it is thought provoking that the changes afoot are already severe enough to dry up a major river.

Tao
 
Snoopy said:
On Friday I drove through a flooded town onto a motorway at the start of a 180 mile journey. The motorway had flooded apparently and it took me 3 hours to crawl 3 miles before leaving at the next available exit. With motorways, A roads, B roads, towns and villages flooded my journey home took me 10 hours (instead of 3 and a half). Another motorway suffered a landslide apparently. People slept in their cars on another motorway. A railway line has been closed due to the earth underneath being washed away…
But I know others have suffered far worse, including food and water shortages, damage to homes and loss of life.
This doesn’t seem like a blip or a natural change to me. With all man’s industrial activities it’s hardly surprising to me that the Earth is feeling sick and wanting to wash the problem away.

s.
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Well a study to be published in Nature tomorrow squarely lays the cause of the weather that you experienced on global warming. The first time climate scientists have been prepared to say so. Climate models have long predicted this increase in extreme rainfall patterns. Lets just hope that the super-hurricanes many models have predicted do not also start to hit us. These are hurricanes that start over Africa travel west to the carribean and instead of making landfall in the US as standard tropical storms/hurricanes, turn north and head east back over the Atlantic to us. Some models show these storms as having a power as yet unseen in any storm recorded.

Here is a link to an article in today's Independent regarding tomorrows publication in Nature. England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to increased rain - Independent Online Edition > This Britain

Tao
 
Hey Everyone:)

This thread caught my eye because where I live, it has rained almost every single day starting around sometime in May this year. Very, very unusual! And while we needed the rain badly because we were in a drought situation, we got so much that there has been some severe flooding in several places. Our son, who lives just a few miles north of here where they have had more problems, related a to us an experience quite similar to snoopy's. He was just trying to get home from work.

Anyway, it doesn't feel like Texas usually feels this time of year. By now, the heat is usually pretty daunting. Some say unbearable! So the rain is nice, and I am getting used to it. Everything is green for a change. But like you, I can't help wondering "what's up?"

InPeace,
InLove
 
If we look at the CO and temperature charts and their standard ups and downs every 100-150,000 years....ice age to global melt (anyone remember the ancient map of Antarctica showing its valleys and mountains??)

Anywho...I think man most likely has something to do with acceleration but really cannot do anything in regards to stopping it altogether...

I'm hoping the US passes some law that says...hey we ain't bailing anyone out...if you love your waterfront home and the sea raises 15 feet you'll be under water and that is your problem....stay and risk it, or sell now and move to higher ground...but we can't build the dikes higher in New Orleans..the Mississippi will widen, Florida, the Eastern Seaboard, NY, LA, SF, Seattle...wake up now...you can't stop mother nature. If we try to protect these cities we will only make the disaster worse when it arrives...

Higher ground....today, tomorrow, next week, next year, next decade...it is we who choose when and how to move...it is we who play the land speculation game....will prices go up...or will they collapse with the next hurricane..or flood?....who knows...but if you decide you have to stay where you are...it is not upto the rest of us to take care of you...your choice....take your chances in paradise...(pair o' dice, hmmmm)
 
wil said:
If we look at the CO and temperature charts and their standard ups and downs every 100-150,000 years....ice age to global melt (anyone remember the ancient map of Antarctica showing its valleys and mountains??)

Anywho...I think man most likely has something to do with acceleration but really cannot do anything in regards to stopping it altogether...

I'm hoping the US passes some law that says...hey we ain't bailing anyone out...if you love your waterfront home and the sea raises 15 feet you'll be under water and that is your problem....stay and risk it, or sell now and move to higher ground...but we can't build the dikes higher in New Orleans..the Mississippi will widen, Florida, the Eastern Seaboard, NY, LA, SF, Seattle...wake up now...you can't stop mother nature. If we try to protect these cities we will only make the disaster worse when it arrives...

Higher ground....today, tomorrow, next week, next year, next decade...it is we who choose when and how to move...it is we who play the land speculation game....will prices go up...or will they collapse with the next hurricane..or flood?....who knows...but if you decide you have to stay where you are...it is not upto the rest of us to take care of you...your choice....take your chances in paradise...(pair o' dice, hmmmm)
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Thats fair enough with those with the resources and choice to do so. But if you live in Bangladesh, the Maldives and many other places around the world you may not have such options.

Tao
 
I have a picture in my mind, now, wil. Everyone just gradually moving to higher ground. Pretty soon we will all wind up in Tibet. Real estate prices won't matter. Arks will once again be very sought after...

(Sorry, just woke up, lol.)
 
Tao_Equus said:
Thats fair enough with those with the resources and choice to do so. But if you live in Bangladesh, the Maldives and many other places around the world you may not have such options.
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exactly and with the funds the US and other western nations save by not trying some idiotic lame brain impossible solution of holding the water back or salting the sky's to ice the glaciers or putting a giant umbrella in space to block the sun and cool the planet...instead of messing with our terrarium/ecosystem we call earth...we could utilze those funds to help other find higher ground and fertile soil....
 
I do agree that it is senseless to waste time and resources on schemes that try to dramatically reverse the effects of global warming. Almost without exception our every effort to "control" nature has resulted in disaster and utter failure. A good example being the 'straightening' of the Mississippi.
It is not a difficult task to identify what is a flood plain, what is an area at risk from rising sea levels/storm surges and all new building in such areas should be prohibited. Yet flood plains are amongst the most fertile and productive areas and where much of global food production takes place, we cannot afford to abandon them altogether. So we must find ways to adapt and take advantage of these changes. That is no easy task tho, the changes are so unpredictable and solutions to one possibility may exacerbate other scenarios. So to a degree we are all going to have to sit and wait and see how things pan out and most of all have plans of action in place to give help in the emergencies that arise.
What I talk about above though is the lesser of of the problems facing us. Too much water we can deal with. No water at all is much more problematic and a much greater threat to far more people. The farm I lived on in Greece dug its first well about 10 years before I arrived and it was 4 meters deep. By the time I arrived it was 18 meters deep and in the 5 years I was there had to be re bored annually by between 1 and 2 meters each time. The water table will soon be so low that it agriculture will have to be abandoned. This is repeated around the Med and around the world. When you get closer to the equator the problems get ever worse. Desertification around the Sahara expands at 1-5km annually. In China this is also becoming a huge problem affecting many millions.
In the west we talk about things like recycling and hybrid cars. This is lip service. We have not yet truly woken up to how we have to completely re-evaluate everything we do in modern globalised society. That agriculture and industry has to be de-centralised away from corporate giants to local communities that take responsibility in every sense. The lie of the global economy is its efficiency. It is anything but. It is all about exploitation and the hidden costs are the threats that will come to haunt our children.

Tao
 
Tao_Equus said:
Desertification around the Sahara expands at 1-5km annually. In China this is also becoming a huge problem affecting many millions.
In the west we talk about things like recycling and hybrid cars. This is lip service. We have not yet truly woken up to how we have to completely re-evaluate everything we do in modern globalised society. That agriculture and industry has to be de-centralised away from corporate giants to local communities that take responsibility in every sense. The lie of the global economy is its efficiency. It is anything but. It is all about exploitation and the hidden costs are the threats that will come to haunt our children.

Tao
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Is China part of the 'west' yet? 2005 2% less CO production than US, 2006 8% more...that sleeping giant will be going through what the US did in regards to pollution 40 years ago if they continue down the path they are going they'll be making all the mistakes we did...but twice as fast and double in volume...
 
InLove said:
I have a picture in my mind, now, wil. Everyone just gradually moving to higher ground. Pretty soon we will all wind up in Tibet. Real estate prices won't matter. Arks will once again be very sought after...

(Sorry, just woke up, lol.)
Click to expand...


Tibet is one of the places experiencing some of the most dramatic changes.
The Hindu News Update Service
 
wil said:
Is China part of the 'west' yet? 2005 2% less CO production than US, 2006 8% more...that sleeping giant will be going through what the US did in regards to pollution 40 years ago if they continue down the path they are going they'll be making all the mistakes we did...but twice as fast and double in volume...
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Well since the US is in debt to China to the tune of close to a trillion dollars I'd say even if it is not part of "the west", it owns a great deal of it :p
 
Tao_Equus said:
Tibet is one of the places experiencing some of the most dramatic changes.
The Hindu News Update Service
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It makes sense that any highly glaciated site would have more dramatic changes...

When the first rock is exposed in Antarctica the subsequent change and growth will be dramatic. Not being a scientist this is just me surmising of course...what I do often... but I see a vast white ice area...cold and reflective....melt our way down to one rock being exposed and one day's sun exposure on that one dark rock will become the beginning of a heat sink and as it melts the ice around it and exposes more...the heat sink will increase in size and duration above freezing as it absorbs and doesn't reflect and subsequently transfers the heat to the surrounding soil which is then sucked out by the ice and more melt.... I think we'll be watching that on the web when it occurs...
 
I agree such a sight is not far off. When shelves of ice the size of Wales are breaking off its a sign that profound change is afoot.

Tao

Edit, you touched upon that old map of Antarctica as ice-less Islands, be an interesting subject of discussion in its own right.
 
Global warming isn't out of the woods yet. Apparently there could still be a really long lag between solar activity and changes in climate. So sayeth the man who wrote the study, see below. Plus thirty years is not sufficient data to go on. I'm still not giving up on a sudden onset ice age...we're due one quite soon. Maybe the sea cooling off the west coast of South America that caused this summer's low pressure adverse weather bonanza over Europe is due to global cooling not global warming?
New Scientist 11th July said:
Measurements of the Sun's brightness – which indicates of the amount of energy coming from the sun – only began in 1977. Yet here too the data suggests solar activity is playing a negligible role in current global warming: irradiance rose between 1977 and 1985, but has been dropping since. Lockwood says the only way of reconciling the data with the idea that solar activity is causing global warming is to propose that there is a time lag between the Sun's activity changing and those changes affecting the Earth's climate.
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spiderbaby said:
Global warming isn't out of the woods yet. Apparently there could still be a really long lag between solar activity and changes in climate. So sayeth the man who wrote the study, see below. Plus thirty years is not sufficient data to go on. I'm still not giving up on a sudden onset ice age...we're due one quite soon. Maybe the sea cooling off the west coast of South America that caused this summer's low pressure adverse weather bonanza over Europe is due to global cooling not global warming?
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the pentagon commissioned a worse case scenario to which a movie was inspired regarding the salt content of the water changing due to the melting ice causing the gulfstream to drop, immediately cooling the earth and us entering the next ice age...one thing is certain is uncertainty in this regard...we sure haven't completely figured out how this big terrarium operates...
 
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